Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
